If the proposal by the Mohegan and Mashantucket Pequot Indians to build a casino in East Windsor is not dead, it is at least down for the count, with long odds of making it back up.

The legislation authorizing the casino, meant to compete with one MGM is building across the state line, in Springfield, Mass., passed the General Assembly this year with one large "but" written into the bill.

That contingency is that the U.S. Department of the Interior approves an amendment to the tribes' compact with the state, saying that the new commercial casino in East Windsor would not change the compact terms that grant the tribes a gambling duopoly in exchange for payment to the state of 25 percent of their slot revenues.

The contingency was an important compromise in the debate over East Windsor, after some lawmakers raised alarms that the new commercial casino would stop the existing slot payments from the casinos on tribal lands.

The tribes presented preliminary opinions from Interior suggesting they would approve the amendment.

But then in September came the bombshell: a letter from Michael Black, acting assistant secretary of Indian affairs in the Interior Department, saying, well, no one is quite sure what the rambling letter says.

One thing for sure is that it does not specifically say the amendment is approved.

Opponents of the East Windsor casino, MGM chief among them, say flatly that the letter does not meet the legal requirement for approval of the new casino.

In their more nuanced opinion of the letter, the tribes say that the lack of approval for the amendment can be interpreted, according to regulations, as approval.

They seem to be right about that, and no action in such matters can be interpreted as approval.

The problem is that the approval of the compact amendment, to meet the requirements of the Connecticut law allowing an East Windsor casino, must be published in the Federal Register within 90 days of the time the compact amendment was proposed.

The clock is ticking on that one, and something needs to be published in the Federal Register by early next month to rescue the East Windsor plans.

The federal department is ducking questions from the media about the confusing letter from Black and whether anything will be published in the register. But the text of the letter would suggest there are no plans to take any action that would be published in the register.

"We return the amendment to you to maintain the status quo as action on the amendment is premature and likely unnecessary," the acting assistant secretary wrote to Kevin Brown, Mohegan tribal chairman.

It doesn't seem likely they would publish an "unnecessary" action in the Federal Register. Indeed, they haven't yet.

Attorney General George Jepsen would seem a likely interpreter/arbiter of this mess. But a spokesperson for his office said Tuesday no one with the authority to request an official opinion, such as the governor or legislative leaders, has asked for one. The office would not comment on the record without that request, the spokesperson said.

One thing now clear is that the issue has been raised to high levels of attention in Washington. The letter from Black to Brown was copied to two Nevada lawmakers, suggesting that MGM has been using hometown legislators to help lobby the issue.

U.S. Rep. Mark Amodei of Nevada personally fielded a call I made to his office Tuesday asking whether he had tried to influence the decision about the Connecticut gaming compact amendment.

He admitted he acted, suggesting the agency needed to at least make a decision and "do their job," since lack of action could be interpreted as approval. He said he was acting in the interests of a Nevada gaming license holder.

Indeed, both Amodei and Sen. Dean Heller, also coped on the letter, include gaming interests among their most significant contributors. MGM ranks among Heller's five biggest donors.

Some recourses left to the tribe, in the event nothing is published in the register, are not great: suing the department, a time-consuming prospect, or asking the General Assembly to amend the law and drop the need for federal approval of the compact amendment, a hard sell.

The tribe's deal for building in East Windsor requires the first payment to the town — of $3 million — 15 months before opening. On the tribe's current schedule, it would have been paid by September but hasn't been.

East Windsor First Selectman Robert Maynard told me Tuesday he's not worried if the schedule is slipping a bit. He said the town has not yet set a budget for how the $3 million will be spent.

That's good. Because it may not be coming.

This is the opinion of David Collins.

d.collins@theday.com