Poll: Lamont leads Stefanowski by 15 points; Blumenthal also up by 15 over Levy
With two weeks remaining before the election, Gov. Ned Lamont and Sen. Richard Blumenthal lead by 15 points each, a new poll said Monday.
The latest Quinnipiac University survey says that Lamont is leading Republican Bob Stefanowski of Madison by 56% to 41%, while Blumenthal is ahead of Greenwich fundraiser Leora Levy by the same margin.
Both Lamont and Blumenthal have sky-high name recognition in a blue state where they hold statewide positions. They are both running against wealthy Republican candidates who have never held elective office.
Longtime Quinnipiac poll director Doug Schwartz said Lamont’s double-digit lead shows the contest is “the first gubernatorial race since 2006 that hasn’t been close.’'
But Stefanowski said, “Our internal polls and feedback from the public show a different race.’'
Stefanowski and Levy blasted a previous Quinnipiac survey in mid-September that showed them behind by 17 points each. Stefanowski has repeatedly said that the governor’s race is much closer and that his campaign’s internal polls show the contest is within the margin of error.
Nationally known pollster John McLaughlin, who has handled polling for Donald J. Trump, worked for Stefanowski in 2018 and again this year. Stefanowski also rejected a previous poll by Channel 8, The Hill, and Emerson College Polling that showed Lamont ahead by 10 points with 9% undecided.
“As has been clear for months, the negativity behind Stefanowski’s misinformation tour is not resonating with voters across the state,’' said Onotse Omoyeni, Lamont’s campaign spokeswoman. “These trends show the people of Connecticut are on board with four more years of job creation, relief for middle class families, and paying down decades-old debts.”
Levy’s campaign ripped the poll Monday in the U.S. Senate race.
“Even one of the most inaccurate pollsters in America — who said Joe Biden was winning in Florida by 5 points two days before the 2020 election — cannot help but capture three fundamental facts: Joe Biden is upside-down, Leora Levy is winning with independents, and Dick Blumenthal’s record is a colossal failure on the issues most important to Connecticut voters’' Levy spokesman Tim Saler said.
Blumenthal’s campaign spokesman, Ty McEachern, said that Blumenthal always campaigns as if he is 10 points behind.
“Our opponent is Donald Trump’s choice, while Senator Blumenthal is working to be Connecticut’s,’' he said.
The survey of 1,879 Connecticut likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points.
While criticized in the past by various candidates, Quinnipiac has consistently defended its accuracy and stood by its methodology that involves live interviewers who speak to those on cellphones and traditional landlines that are often used by older voters. Some pundits say a problem is a mistrust of all telemarketers because phones are flooded with calls about car warranties and widespread scams. In addition, a growing number of voters are unwilling to provide accurate answers or any answers at all.
Quinnipiac describes its poll as independent and nonpartisan that has been operating since 1988 and is currently in more than 20 states and cities.
In the 2018 governor’s race in Connecticut, the final Quinnipiac Poll had Lamont ahead by 4 points, and he won by 3 points. In the 2014 governor’s race, the final poll had incumbent Gov. Dannel P. Malloy ahead by 1 point, and he won by 3 points.
In Florida in the 2016 presidential race, the final Quinnipiac Poll had Democrat Hillary Clinton winning by 1 point, and she lost by 1 point — which the poll said was within the margin of error. In the 2016 presidential race in Ohio, the final Quinnipiac Poll said Republican Donald Trump would win by 5 points, and he actually won by 8 percentage points.
Historically, races with wide margins in September have gotten closer by election day. On August 23, 2018, the Quinnipiac poll showed Lamont had a 13-point lead over Stefanowski, who said at the time that his internal polls showed the race as much tighter. He lost by three percentage points.
Both gubernatorial candidates are multimillionaire former business executives who are pouring part of their vast fortunes into the campaigns. Stefanowski has pledged to spend $10 million, while Lamont is expected to spend far more than the $15 million that he spent in 2018 to defeat Stefanowski.
Lamont and Blumenthal currently have wide margins among women voters in a blue state where Democrats have held all statewide and Congressional elections since 2006, including governor, attorney general, and state treasurer.
Connecticut Republicans have not won the U.S. Senate seat since Lowell P. Weicker Jr. in 1982. Since then, the elections have been won by Democrats Joe Lieberman, Chris Dodd, Chris Murphy and Blumenthal. Lieberman defeated Weicker in 1988, and Democrats have not lost since then.
As a political newcomer with little campaign cash and a lack of television commercials in September and early October, Levy has had difficulty in boosting her name recognition.
“Not only does Republican Leora Levy have the formidable task of taking on a popular Democratic incumbent U.S. Senator in blue Connecticut, but about 3 in 10 likely voters say they haven’t heard enough about her to express an opinion,” Schwartz said.
Among all likely voters, inflation is seen as the biggest issue facing Connecticut at 37%, compared to 13% citing taxes. Among Democrats, 24% said the top issue is inflation, followed by 14% who chose abortion and 13% for climate change. The issues are different for Republicans, where 56% said inflation is the most important, followed by 15% for taxes and 11% citing crime.
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